August 11, 2022


Quick Pitch MLB DFS Podcast August 11: Top DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Plays

Hosted by

James Grande Jon Impemba
Quick Pitch MLB DFS Podcast August 11: Top DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Plays
MLB DFS Quick Pitch Podcast
Quick Pitch MLB DFS Podcast August 11: Top DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Plays

Aug 11 2022 | 00:29:03


Show Notes

James Grande previews the MLB DFS slate for Thursday, August 11th for DraftKings and FanDuel and brings you his top plays, values, and fades to build your lineups around which includes Dylan Cease against the Royals and a Rockies/Cardinals game stack in Coors Field.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 0 00:00:00 Ladies and job, you're listening to the fantasy alarm, MLB DFS podcast. Speaker 1 00:00:07 What's going on, everybody happy Thursday and welcome to another edition of the quick pitch, MLB DFS podcast here at fantasy alarm. Um, I am James Grande. I am riding solo today as John and Pemba is currently in the air headed to the fantasy football expo in Katon, Ohio, um, sponsored by fantasy alarm. So, um, there'll be plenty of content, uh, from the expo this weekend. Uh, if you are in the fantasy football space, um, please check out our NFL draft guide. It is free, uh, currently over on fantasy alarm, go to fantasy go to the NFL tab, which is right, uh, at the top. Um, and click on the 2022 NFL draft guide. It is free this year, absolutely free. Um, nothing beats that F R E E $0 0 cents. All that good stuff. Um, so make sure you check that out. Uh, John, I hope you're, uh, joining the, joining the expo along with Howard bender and a bunch of other family members, but we are here to talk baseball today. Speaker 1 00:01:11 Um, we have a six game main slate kicking off at 1:05 PM Eastern standard time. Um, you may still be having your first cup of coffee or fair out there on the west coast when this slate kicks off. Um, but six games over on draft Kings fan Yahoo fantasy. Um, so let's get into it, no weather concerns first and foremost, that is wonderful. Um, there is some wind blowing out in Detroit, nothing significant. Um, there's going to be a very hot and humid day in chorus field as well. Um, you know, not that that ballpark needs any more, uh, help in terms of hitting, but here we are. Um, so solid weather today, but let's get into the slate. Uh, it's gonna be a quick one again. It's just me. Um, let's get into pitching Dylan cease at the top. We'll talk traffickings and FAL pitching. Speaker 1 00:02:08 Uh, Dylan sees Fran bar Valdez at the top of both slates and actually Meryl Kelly is the third arm on both slates as well. So, uh, we could group them all together, even though I think it's really not all that close it's Dylan cease. And then the rest of the position don't cease has been, uh, pretty spectacular. I mean, we're talking about a guy who has allowed one earned run or fewer in 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 11. I mean, I don't even know 10, 10 straight starts. Um, it May 24th, uh, was the last time that he allowed more than, than one earned run. I mean, this is just an absolutely insane stretch. He's eight and one over his last 10 games with a 0.75 era, um, 77 strikeouts and 59 innings over that span. Unbelievable. And, and the Royals, aren't a team that necessarily strikes out all that much, but it doesn't matter right now. Speaker 1 00:03:10 Um, even the Royals, honestly, over the last 30 days, 13th and strikeout rate against right hand pitching. So there is some upside here for seas. I think he's the clear one. Uh, the clear S SP one on today's slate, Fran bar, Valez in a good spot as well. Um, Mr. A reliable going to get you double digit fancy points regardless. Uh, he's going to pitch you give you at least six innings. He's gonna get you a quality start and he's gonna get you double digit fantasy points. Uh, and he's gonna get the other team to beat the ball into the ground. That's just what he does. That's his Mo um, and we know the Astros, you know, score a bunch of runs. So I like Baldez as a, as a play off of cease even though, you know, in my cash line. So I'm gonna be prioritizing cease, um, Merrill. Speaker 1 00:03:54 It's interesting to see Merrill Kelly at this price. Not that he doesn't deserve it, uh, because he is been quite good. I mean, we're talking about a span of seven straight starts of two earned runs or less and six plus innings or more. Um, and each of these starts for Kelly, only one of those seven starts. Two of those starts rather, uh, less than five strikeouts. So Kelly's really put it together. Another guy who, who gets a lot of ground ball outs, um, you know, hasn't always been fortunate in the win category, but 10 and five on the year. Uh, you don't necessarily think Merrill Kelly is a 10 K pitcher, especially over on Vandal, but here we are, uh, against a, you know, pirates offense that strikes out a bunch currently against right-handed pitching 24.8% care rate over the last 30 days, super appealing. Speaker 1 00:04:43 Um, you know, if you wanna go Meryl Kelly as a contrarian play by all means, uh, Edward Cabrera is gonna be popular. Um, everyone's darling starter from the Marlins. Um, you know, they just have a farm full of just arm after arm, after arm coming up from the, uh, from the minor leagues that just are Uber talented Cabra already four starts this year three, uh, he's looked tremendous, he's gone 20 fantasy points, one, you know, not so good start in Houston. Um, but his debut was six squirrels innings in cos field. He then pitched in Wrigley five squirrels last time out. Um, the pitch count should be back up over 70 or 78 last time he should be in the eighties here. I think Greta's fine for tournament, scary offense. Um, you know, Kyle Gibson really great start his last time out, not gonna be a high strikeout guy needs a win, I would say for his upside to really shine through. Speaker 1 00:05:39 Um, but he's on the board. He's in play, uh, brew. Baker's been okay. He can go there if you want. I don't have much interest, um, in brew baker, not gonna touch, uh, her men marque at home. Uh, this year at home six 11 era 14 home runs compared to 4 0 7 era on the road, six home runs. So, uh, just not it, especially with St. Louis offense scoring, um, nine runs on, on a, on Wednesday evening that police sec also been bad, uh, very, very bad lately. Uh, you know, I'm not gonna go here. I understand, I guess, why somebody would, he's been good against Detroit this year 3 7, 2 era in two meetings, um, including his last start. I mean, his last start he got kind of hit around. Didn't even make it outta the fourth inning. Um, I'm not really in on police eye care either. Speaker 1 00:06:38 Uh, on the flip side of that game, Garrett hill, uh, five and two thirds innings, his last start, six strikeouts. Not that he hasn't flashed like a lot of upside, but he's made two good starts this year. One of 'em was against Cleveland. Um, Cleveland, not a team, exact that strikes out all that much. I mean, against right handed pitching over the last month, Cleveland literally dead lasted strikeout, right. So probably not gonna go to hill, um, not gonna, I don't play Zach cranky, um, you know, shout out peak hole. I know you do, especially when he is home and he been ho he's been good at home this year, but there's just limited upside with cranky. Um, just, yeah, I can't do it, Dakota Hudson. No, thanks in cores. Absolutely. No, thanks. And then Cole Reagan's, I mean, you know, was very good in his debut. Speaker 1 00:07:36 You lefty against Houston though, Houston, over the last month, ninth in ops. Um, they are third in isolated power. That's super scary. They are 10th in WOBA, but they just don't strike out 16% K rate to lefties over the last month. Um, probably can't go Reagan's so for me, it's really cease Baldez, Meryl Kelly, you could play Edward Cabrera, Kyle Gibson. I think they're both fine. The Valer is just horrible. Um, I guess Reagan's would be the, the one dart that I would, I would throw out there and honestly it's same goes for FAL, um, Gibson at nine K you know, um, Reagan's at 72 allows you to probably get more chorus on Vandal. So, um, yeah, I think that's it for me, Gibson nine K and then maybe a shot Reagans, but like, you know, you're tense, you're the, every pitch he throws, you're just 10, your whole body is tense and, um, it's, it's not gonna be great. Speaker 1 00:08:57 Um, let's go over to catcher on a six game slate. I know we're not gonna let spend a lot of time here. Um, you know, the, the Royal's catchers have been good, but do we really wanna attack Dylan cease? I guess if you wanna be contrarian by all means, but, you know, I don't think we need to be that contr seat hasn't allowed one and runner or, you know, that that run is gonna obviously end, but we've probably said that a couple times this year and look at it's still going. Um, Carson Kelly is the guy that I play a lot. He is struggling a little bit and he is been better against lefty. So you don't have to go there. Um, we might see, uh, Dom, Nuez not even on the team anymore. I don't know why they have him here. Um, it's been, yeah. Speaker 1 00:09:38 Um, grand do has been bad. He was good on Wednesday at two hits in a walk. If you wanna go there. I think all the, the cores catchers are in play, um, with is D's leaving last night's game. We probably see Brian Sevan start here. Um, Brian Sevin just a couple starts ago, had three hits in a game. So if you wanna go there, um, but if Yachty's in the lineup, Yachty's gonna be your chalk, uh, two hits in RBI on Wednesday night. One of them, uh, should have been an extra base hit, but Yachty just doesn't run. Uh, it doesn't even care to run honestly, um, hit the wall just CHROs into first with a single. So, um, yeah, I think Yachty's gonna be the chalk two K right. And if Andrew Kinser is starting 2.4 K um, whatever catcher draws a start in this game, um, they're appealing. Speaker 1 00:10:39 I think that's it. Um, until we get lineups, um, until we get lineups, I don't think we really need to get crazy at the position, I guess. Uh, if you wanted to play air cost, that's fine. And if you wanna play in a stack, cuz we mentioned, um, please act been bad. So if you wanna play, buy your cost, that's fine too. Uh, first basement, Paul Goldschmidt let everyone down. Uh, the optimal first basement from the Cardinals last night was two K Albert pools, uh, 40, which means if you saved $4,200 to go from Goldie to pool hosts, that was the optimal strategy. Uh, so what will everyone do today? Um, we, we should go right back to the wealth culture, man. <laugh> uh, if you don't wanna play Goldsmith go right to back to the well with CJ Chrome who had it lugged out a triple last night, even though on that, even though he is on that bad hammy. Speaker 1 00:11:27 Um, and, and what have we said about crone throughout a screw? He is been a lefty split guy this year, crushing righties 3 0 5 16 home runs, uh, 3 86 WOBA and, uh, Dakota Hudson's been worse against right-handed hitters himself 2 99 average against seven 90 ops 3 46 WOBA so, um, we should be getting a pretty good, uh Cronan and I think he'll probably be lesser owned of the two than him and gold Schmidt, uh, for $1,200 less as well. So I'm down with CJR, um, Jose Abreu, let's see if there's BV. I mean, they've I faced each other a hundred times th four for 13, uh, for Jose Abreu against Zach cranky, you know, not bad, no home runs. Um, I mean, Frank's been tagged, you know, he he's hit around, so if you wanna go Abreu that's fine. Uh, he's been, he's been okay lately, uh, 4,900 worth. Speaker 1 00:12:21 I don't know. Um, moving down the list, Josh nailer against hill that's in play. We love nailer against righties Christian Walker. You can play against JT brew, baker, Christian Walker, driving in a lot of runs lately, 11 RBIS over his last 10 games. Um, 63 RBIS on the year, Christian Walker, uh, a candidate for maybe a hundred ribs on the year. Uh, he's two for two off brew baker with a home run in his career. Um, right. He's 3 33 WOBA seven 50 ops Walker 3 0 9. Well, about 20 of his home runs have come against righty. So, uh, he hits better against lefties, but the power shortage, no such thing. Um, Trey Mancini was not in the lineup on Wednesday, fully expect him to be back in the lineup on Thursday. Love him here again. I liked Reagan's but it was his first start and Mancini had so much depth to this Houston lineup. Um, has notoriously hit lefties well hard not to go there 3,700 if you're not spending up in Chos, um, can also play Yuli Grael who's been hitting second, even though he's been just a shell of himself. So if you wanna play Yuli by all means. Speaker 1 00:13:37 And then, I mean, if pool's in the lineup, <laugh> how can I, four for five home run a double he's a triple short of the cycle. I don't think Albert's gonna be legging outta any triples this year and zero on the year probably ends that way as well, but four for five, if he's hitting hit fifth last night and that's generally where they hit him against lefties, but you know, if they play him again here, $2,000, he's going to be popular. So, you know, I, I, I'm always gonna pick Goldie, but $4,200 worth of savings if you need it. It's obviously there for you. Second base Jose tuve at the top against a lefty. I mean, we don't have to dive too far into that. Tuve has been elite his entire career against lefties this year. No different could tell Marte struggled a little bit, but if you're on Arizona stack against BR baker brew baker has struggled against lefties three 50 WOBA against him. Speaker 1 00:14:30 Eight, 10 ops. I don't hate that. Same with Roja who now has second base eligibility for whatever reason probably leads off here. Um, I think the, the popular second basement play is gonna be Nolan Goman though. Uh, Nolan, Goman not in the lineup. Wednesday will be back in the lineup on Thursday, the lefty righty matchup here for Gorman, um, against Herman marque Gorman this year, let's check it Gorman this year against, um, right handed pitchers three 30 WOBA 12 home runs, um, on the year Nolan Gorman has 12 home runs. So all 12 home runs have come against righties. Um, Herman marque 3 45, little bit of leftees. I mean, we're already talked about how bad he's been at home. So I think Gorman's chalk. If you wanna, you know, if Tommy Edmond cracks the lineup still a base last night has three stolen base silvers, last 10 games. Speaker 1 00:15:25 You can, you know, probably play a lesser own Tommy Edmond who also has shorts up eligibility. But, um, I, I still prefer Gorman, Andre, Simon as just another, you know, clock in clock out just nine to five performance. I mean, two to two for four run scored a stolen base. Second stolen base in three games has five stolen bases over his last 10. Uh, now up to 13 stolen bases on the year hitting 3 0 6. I mean the guys has just been tremendous. Um, so Andre Jimenez, 4,300, I think he fits perfectly in a Cleveland stack. Um, I mean, I'm not like fully in on Philly, if you wanna go against Edward Cabrera by all means do so. Kevin Newman was really, really good on Wednesday. I know there's a lefty on the mound, but three for five in a stolen base. If you wanna go to Kevin Newman, don't hate it. Speaker 1 00:16:19 Uh, especially if he's leading off 3,100, I think that's it. I mean, again was like Merril. Kelly's been really good, but two capita Marko we've seen him lead off a couple times has stolen base has some power, you know, two K third base, uh, everyone's favorite position. Jose Ramirez is perfectly fine if you wanna play a guardian stack, um, Nolan NATO coming off a big game in core, as we know, you know, how much he's loved course field over the years, but, uh, you know, just probably actually having his best year of his career. And that's crazy considering he spent his career first, what, nine years in, uh, eight years in, in Colorado, um, three for five last night, triple shy of the cycle home runs in two of three. I mean, our Ana's on a different planet right now. Um, good matchup, every everything you'd want, uh, unlike Alex Bergman who can hit lefties this year, um, having had just a down year altogether sub 800 ops 5k. Speaker 1 00:17:30 I mean, you can do it international stack, but uh, I'm not playing him as a one off already mentioned Roja, Ken play McMan MCs been really good against righties and he is been really good at home. Uh, he does all of his damage at home 8 0 6 ops in cores, 6 47 away from home. Um, and he does all his damage against righties as well. So, uh, MCM man gets Dakota to Hudson here. I think he's in a good spot. Al Bo still too cheap hitting third, you know, come back, he's come back to earth a little bit, uh, from his to stretch, but in play Brennan Donovan could crack the line up here. He hasn't been playing a whole bunch, uh, since the trade deadline. Um, and since you know, they recalled Paul de young and Paul de Young's been playing great. But if Brenda Donovan cracks the line up 3,600, I don't hate it. Speaker 1 00:18:19 Um, in a left lefty, righty spot I let Misa is another like Trey Mancini didn't start last night, did get to a bat still. Um, but he's been incredibly good lately. If you wanna play a lead Mya in this, in the right lefty split, um, Heimer, kenario been better against lefties and he's been dreadful lately, but, uh, 10 home runs this year, not too shabby and profiled at the top. Uh, police hack has been bad, bad, bad, so I would go there. I'd also go, um, LA Harris who had another two hit game that is now five straight, two hit games. He has, uh, nine game hit streak as well. Very hard to, to fade him at 2,700 right now. Um, I really like this third base value, uh, manual Rivera as well. He's been playing pretty much every day for Arizona, uh, hitting two K hitting sixth, seventh area in that range. Speaker 1 00:19:15 So if you wanna play that, I think that's fine. At the top of the shortstop position met Rosario. I don't like paying 49 for him, but I guess there's been a small power surge from Rosario lately. Three home runs over his last 10, six extra base hits over that span. So if you're playing a guardian stack, I don't hate it. I don't hate a contrarian tiger stack. I don't. And I know how VI BAAs has done all of his damage against lefties this year. This is it's been a forgetful year for him and the tigers in general. Um, I think there was a lot of excitement on the tigers this year. They went out and spent a lot of money this off season and hasn't paid out or paid off rather, but hobby BA's interesting spot against police act. Um, police act stunk. Like I don't, I don't know. Speaker 1 00:20:05 What do you want me to say? He's been bat, um, left. These have been better granted, uh, 360 3 WOBA eight 30 ops, but you know, I, I could see myself getting to some, some bias and getting to getting to some tigers. Um, but if I'm not going by, you know, you could play SIM against Valez. I don't love it. I don't love Seeger either. Uh, Jose Gladius just, the guy has been incredible, uh, four 15. Um, they're talking about it on the broadcast last night on the, uh, Rocky's broadcast. I think he could challenge for the PAing title. Um, weirdly enough, hitting 2 77 at home 3 58 on the road. Imagine that, uh, you know, there's some positive regression for him at home. I mean, we're talking about the best hitters environment in the league. He's hitting 2 77, um, hard to not just have a GLA on your radar right now. Speaker 1 00:21:04 I mean, even in a game where, you know, he doesn't Homer, cause he doesn't Homer three home runs on the air. I mean 14 fantasy points, 15 last night. Um, rarely just double digit fantasy points more often than not right now. So, uh, glacier's 42 in a matchup. He, you know, his hit right's better this year in Dakota. Hudson is struggled. Verse righties could be, uh, match made in heaven, uh, Ono cruise, we know power upside from the left side and also speed potential. Um, Paul de young is gonna be very popular and all Paul de young does is hit for extra basis. I mean, the guy has 11 hits since being recalled and nine of them are for extra basis. Uh, he has 21 hits on the year 13 for extra bases, uh, four for five last night, two doubles. He now has hits in three straight games, seven RBIS over his LA. Speaker 1 00:21:56 I mean, he's been really, really good since being recalled and, and this was the player he was in the minor league last year. Um, so I love the young 3,700. I think he's gonna be very popular as he should be, cuz it's cores. Um, so if you wanna fade him, you know, by all means do so, but I liked spot, um, Rodolfo Castro for a cheap punt against Merl Kelly. Fine. Um, he's been up for two games. Fine. Let's finish this one off at the outfield position. Uh, Kyle Scher again, tops the list six K look, three straight multi hit games. Steven stole a base yesterday. He's stolen a couple bases lately. Speaker 1 00:22:38 You know, 34 home runs. There's always power upside. So if you wanna go there, you can Jodan hits everybody. Finally showed some signs of life yesterday, hit a home run for the Astros. Um, definitely could play Louis Robert he's rolling right now. Another two hit game for him. Um, hitting 4 41 with a 1235 ops over his last 10 games. So you could definitely play Louis Robert Blackman, uh, should lead off here against Dakota Hudson, Ken Tyler. O'Neal pretty much let, let us down against, uh, Kyle Freeland and co on Wednesday, but you can run it back with him. Um, Helo has been good. VAO for cheap home run, I guess, mid tier home run 4,300, uh, when Kyle Tucker is going good, he is, he is a very streaky player, um, hits in three straight starts, extra bass hits in three straight starts. So when Kyle Tucker starts feeling it, you could play him lefty, right? Speaker 1 00:23:43 He split doesn't really really matter. Um, Steven qu fit into your guardian stacks, not a ton of upside, but he, you know, he is stolen base potential. GREK after five for five goes oh for five. Isn't that how the story goes? So maybe we'll get somewhere in the middle here. Uh, I don't hate GREK Carlson like him better against lefties Brian Reynolds, uh, you know, had a decent game for the pirates on Wednesday. You can go back to the well there Riley greened against ack. We talk about it. Lefties against sack is the play. Um, Riley green should hit a top of this order striking out a little too much, but 3,900 in a really good spot against like guy who doesn't really miss bat. So, um, yeah, I don't, I don't necessarily hate it. Um, uh, let's see. Let's see. Um, Oscar Gonzalez. He is a good little player. Speaker 1 00:24:44 Didn't start Wednesday, but the two games prior at two hits in each he's good. Uh, Jake McCarthy, uh, Diamondbacks led him off and, and you know, they've been leading Roja off, uh, when RO Hassman line up, but with Roja out the lineup on Wednesday, McCarthy led off didn't steal a base, didn't drive a runs, but one for three runs scored three, three games, seven fantasy points. Um, I don't expect him to lead off again. Um, but I definitely think he's in play regardless with a righty on the mound. He's a stole based threat every time he reaches. So, uh, three K I don't mind it, uh, going down the list here, uh, if Chaz McCormick cracks the lineup for Houston, if Sam Hilliard cracks the lineup for Colorado, Sam Hillard, even on the team. Yeah. He still on the team hitting 180, you know, you never know, could be, could be sniped. Speaker 1 00:25:38 Sometimes Lars Newt bar, uh, is gonna be very popular here. Um, very speedy kid had two triples and a stolen base on Wednesday. He's been hitting the ball really well, 3 33 averaged 9 25 ops over his last 10 games. Um, if he gets on, he can steal. If he puts it in the gap, he can stretch it out to three bases and he has a little pop too. Um, so I think Lars Newbar is gonna be a core cash game play. Uh, you could definitely put him into your tournament lineups as well. Um, $2,200 on trafficking's. Like what, what more do you need? Um, and on Fandel just, I just wanna check what his price is on Fandel cause I doubt, I mean 2,700, he's a core play on both sites in, in all formats. Um, JJ bleed day, I mentioned this kid on Wednesday's podcast, um, Homer Tuesday followed up Encore three for three double triples home run shy of the cycle. RBI walk, um, was in every winning lineup 2100 now. Yeah, I think day new Newt bar is a, is a great way to get the likes of Yoan or gold Schmidt or ATO into your lineup. You know, um, especially if you're going cease friend bar cease, Meryll Kelly or cease, you know, Edward caber. I think those, um, those value plays at outfield are, are extremely valuable. Um, and, uh, ones that I'm gonna be taking a look at. Um, that'll do it. Uh, my home run call actually home run call. Speaker 1 00:27:21 So can't go cores. Um, who do we got today? I will go probably go in that Cleveland, Detroit game. What lefties do we have? I didn't mention Harold Castro. He's in play from, from the left side for Detroit. Um, I will go, Speaker 1 00:27:45 I'm gonna go hobby Baez. Um, you know what, I'm gonna go Riley green to stick to the split. I'm gonna go Riley green home run call. Um, I think Green's gonna have a big game here, so yeah. Um, that'll do it again. Um, six game main slate on draft Kings Vandal kicking off at 1:05 PM Eastern standard time. Um, check out all the content for today. Pete Cole in the playbook, we have the value vault. We'll have the, uh, the player prop articles for prize picks, underdog fantasy. Um, we'll have, uh, everything you would need. And plus don't forget. NFL draft guide over on fantasy is free dollars right now, all the time. Rest of the season. First time ever in fantasy alarm, uh, in fantasy alarm history, that's been free. So please check it out. If you're playing fantasy football, you do not want to miss it. Um, but big, thanks everyone for listening. Uh, we'll get a podcast out for tomorrow, John I'm. I'm not sure what his plans are. Maybe we'll have, uh, maybe I'll hit up Pete col see if he can join. Maybe John will be on. I don't know, but there will be a podcast regardless. Uh, big thanks. Um, as always. And uh, we'll catch you guys tomorrow.

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